Think Better · 45 sec
Base rate fallacy
A compact thinking tool for spotting patterns and avoiding mistakes.
The useful idea
- The useful idea
The base rate fallacy, also called base rate neglect or base rate bias, is a type of fallacy in which people tend to ignore the base rate (e.g., general prevalence) in favor of the information pertaining
- How it works
Base rate neglect is a specific form of the more general extension neglect.
- Why it matters
It is also called the prosecutor's fallacy or defense attorney's fallacy when applied to the results of statistical tests (such as DNA tests) in the context of law proceedings.
Why this matters
Use Base rate fallacy as a quick check before trusting your first conclusion.
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Use Base rate fallacy as a quick check before trusting your first conclusion.
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Which idea belongs to the explanation of Base rate fallacy?
- How it works
- The useful idea — correct
- Why it matters
The base rate fallacy, also called base rate neglect or base rate bias, is a type of fallacy in which people tend to ignore the base rate (e.g., general prevalence) in favor of the information pertaining