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Optimism bias

A compact thinking tool for spotting patterns and avoiding mistakes.

  1. The useful idea

    Optimism bias is the tendency of an individual to overestimate the likelihood of positive events and underestimate that of negative events.

  2. How it works

    A cognitive bias, the optimistic bias is common across cultures, genders, ethnicities, nationalities, and age groups.

  3. Why it matters

    It has implications to individual and group decision making, public health, policy, economics, and law.

Use Optimism bias as a quick check before trusting your first conclusion.

Use Optimism bias as a quick check before trusting your first conclusion.

Test your recall

Which idea belongs to the explanation of Optimism bias?

  • How it works
  • The useful idea — correct
  • Why it matters

Optimism bias is the tendency of an individual to overestimate the likelihood of positive events and underestimate that of negative events.

EvergreenLast verified 2026-07-19

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